Earth Policy Institute Resources on FOOD and AGRICULTURE
Eco-Economy Indicators are twelve trends that the Earth Policy Institute tracks to measure progress in building an eco-economy. Grain production is the best indicator of the adequacy of the food supply. On average, half the calories we consume come directly from grain and a large part of the remainder come from the indirect consumption of grain in the form of meat, milk, eggs, and farmed fish.
This year’s world grain harvest is projected to fall short of consumption by 61 million tons, marking the sixth time in the last seven years that production has failed to satisfy demand. As a result of these shortfalls, world carryover stocks at the end of this crop year are projected to drop to 57 days of consumption, the shortest buffer since the 56-day-low in 1972 that triggered a doubling of grain prices.
World carryover stocks of grain, the amount in the bin when the next harvest begins, are the most basic measure of food security. Whenever stocks drop below 60 days of consumption, prices begin to rise. It thus came as no surprise when the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected in its June 9 world crop report that this year’s wheat prices will be up by 14 percent and corn prices up by 22 percent over last year’s. MORE...
Figure 1: World Grain Production, 1950-2006 (figure and table)
Figure 2: World Grain Production Per Person, 1950-2006 (figure and table)
Figure 3: World Grain Production and Consumption, 1960-2006 (figure and table)
Figure 4: World Grain Stocks, 1960-2006 (figure and table)
Figure 5: World Grain Stocks as Days of Consumption, 1960-2006 (figure and table)
Figure 6: U.S. Corn Production and Use for Fuel Ethanol and for Export, 1980-2006, with Projection to 2007 (figure and table)
2002 Grain Indicator
Ethanol's Potential: Looking Beyond Corn (29 June 2005)
Oil and Food: A Rising Security Challenge (9 May 2005)
Learning from China: Why the Western Economic Model Will Not Work for the World (9 May 2005)
China Replacing the United States as World's Leading Consumer (16 February 2005)
World Food Security Deteriorating (5 May 2004)
World Food Prices Rising (28 April 2004)
China's Shrinking Grain Harvest (March 2004)
Wakeup Call on the Food Front (16 December 2003)
World Facing Fourth Consecutive Grain Harvest Shortfall (17 September 2003)
Record Temperatures Shrinking World Grain Harvest (27 August 2003)
Deserts Advancing, Civilization Retreating (27 March 2003)
Population Growth Leading to Land Hunger (23 January 2003)
Global Temperature Near Record for 2002 (11 December 2002)
Rising Temperatures & Falling Water Tables Raising Food Prices (21 August 2002)
Water Deficits Growing in Many Countries (6 August 2002)
World Grain Harvest Falling Short by 54 Million Tons: Water Shortages Contributing to Shortfall (21 November 2001)
Worsening Water Shortages Threaten China's Food Security (4 October 2001)
Dust Bowl Threatening China’s Future (23 May 2001)
Paving the Planet: Cars and Crops Competing for Land (14 February 2001)
U.S. Farmers Double Cropping Corn and Wind Energy (7 June 2000)
Falling Water Tables In China May Soon Raise Food Prices Everywhere (2 May 2000)
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