"I appreciate…the hope Plan B communicates by pointing out so many things that are already being done around the globe." —Roland Saher, economics teacher on Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization.
Chapter 5. Stabilizing Climate: Shifting to Renewable Energy: Hydropower - Rivers, Tides, and Waves
The term hydropower has traditionally referred to dams that harnessed the energy in river flows, but today it also includes harnessing the energy in tides and waves as well as using smaller “in-stream” turbines to capture the energy in rivers and tides without building dams. 99
Roughly 16 percent of the world’s electricity comes from hydropower, most of it from large dams. Some countries such as Brazil and the Democratic Republic of the Congo get the bulk of their electricity from river power. Large dam building flourished during the third quarter of the last century, but then slowed as the remaining good sites for dam building dwindled and as the costs of displacing people, ecological damage, and land inundation became more visible. 100
Small-scale projects, which are not nearly as disruptive, are still in favor. In 2006, small dams with a combined 6,000 megawatts of generating capacity were built in rural areas of China. For many rural communities these are currently the only source of electricity. Though China leads in new construction, many other countries are also building small-scale structures, as the economics of generation increasingly favor renewable sources over fossil fuels. And there is growing interest in in-stream turbines that do not need a dam and are less environmentally intrusive. 101
Tidal power (actually, lunar power) holds a certain fascination because of its sheer potential scale. Canada’s Bay of Fundy, for example, has a potential generating capacity of more than 4,000 megawatts. Other countries are looking at possible projects in the 7,000- to 15,000-megawatt range. 102
The first large tidal generating facility—La Rance barrage, with a maximum generating capacity of 240 megawatts—was built 40 years ago in France and is still operating today. Within the last few years interest in tidal power has spread rapidly. South Korea, for example, is building a 254-megawatt project on its west coast. Scheduled for completion in 2009, this facility will provide enough electricity for the half-million people living in the nearby city of Ansan. At another site 30 miles to the north, engineers are planning an 812-megawatt tidal facility near Incheon. In March 2008, Lunar Energy of the United Kingdom reached agreement with Korea Midland Power to develop a turbine field off the coast of South Korea that would generate 300 megawatts of power. China is planning a 300-megawatt tidal facility at the mouth of the Yalu River near North Korea. Far to the south, New Zealand is planning a 200-megawatt project in the Kaipara Harbour on the country’s northwest coast. 103
Giant projects are under consideration in several countries, including India, Russia, and the United Kingdom. India is planning to build a 39-mile barrage across the Gulf of Khambhat on the country’s northwest coast with a 7,000-megawatt generating capacity. In the United Kingdom, several political leaders are pushing for an 8,600-megawatt tidal facility in the Severn Estuary on the country’s southwest coast. This is equal to 11 percent of U.K. electrical generating capacity. Russian planners are talking in terms of a 15,000-megawatt tidal barrage in the White Sea in northwestern Russia, near Finland. Part of this power would likely be exported to Europe. A facility under discussion for Tugurski Bay on the country’s Far Eastern coast would provide 8,000 megawatts to power local industry. 104
In the United States, the focus is on smaller tidal facilities. Since 2007 the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has issued more than 30 preliminary permits, including those for projects in Puget Sound, San Francisco Bay, and New York’s East River. The San Francisco Bay project by Oceana Energy Company will have at least 20 megawatts of generating capacity. 105
Wave power, though it is a few years behind tidal power, is now attracting the attention of both engineers and investors. In the United States, the northern Californian utility PG&E has filed a plan to develop a 40-megawatt wave farm off the state’s north coast. GreenWave Energy Solutions has been issued preliminary permits for two projects of up to 100 megawatts each off California’s coast, one in the north and one in the south. And San Francisco is seeking a permit to develop a 10–30 megawatt wave power project off its coast. 106
The world’s first wave farm, a 2-megawatt facility built by Pelamis Wave Power of the United Kingdom, is operating off the coast of Portugal. The project’s second phase would expand this to 22 megawatts. Scottish firms Aquamarine Power and Airtricity are teaming up to build 1,000 megawatts of wave and tidal power off the coast of Ireland and the United Kingdom. Ireland as a whole has the most ambitious wave power development goal, planning 500 megawatts of wave generating capacity by 2020, enough to supply 7 percent of its electricity. Worldwide, the harnessing of wave power could generate a staggering 10,000 gigawatts of electricity, more than double current world electricity generation of 4,000 gigawatts from all sources. 107
We project that the 945 gigawatts (945,000 megawatts) of hydroelectric power in operation worldwide in 2008 will expand to 1,350 gigawatts by 2020. According to China’s official projections, 270 gigawatts will be added there, mostly from large dams in the country’s southwest. The remaining 135 gigawatts in our projected growth of hydropower would come from a scattering of large dams still being built in countries like Brazil and Turkey, a large number of small hydro facilities, a fast-growing number of tidal projects, and numerous smaller wave power projects. 108
Within the United States, where there is little interest in new dams, there is a resurgence of interest in installing generating facilities in non-powered dams and in expanding existing hydro facilities. If the worldwide interest in tidal and wave energy continues to escalate, the additional capacity from hydro, tidal, and wave power by 2020 could easily exceed the 400 gigawatts needed to reach the Plan B goal. 109
99. Nic Lane, Issues Affecting Tidal, Wave, and In-Stream Generation Projects (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 26 November 2008).
100. IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008 (Paris: 2008), p. 165; IEA, Member Countries and Countries Beyond the OECD, electronic database, at www.iea.org/Textbase/country/index.asp, viewed 23 April 2009; International Rivers Network, “Frequently Asked Questions about Dams,” fact sheet (Berkeley, CA: 2004).
101. “Rural Areas Get Increased Hydro Power Capacity,” Xinhua, 7 May 2007.
102. Jason Palmer, “Renewable Energy: The Tide is Turning,” New Scientist, 11 October 2008; European Commission, “Tidal Energy—Promising Sites Worldwide,” ATLAS project Web site, at ec.europa.eu/energy/atlas/html/tidalsites.html, viewed 24 June 2009; ABS Energy Research, The Ocean Energy Report (London: 2009), pp. 13–23.
103. Choe Sang-Hun, “South Korea Seeks Cleaner Energy Sources,” International Herald Tribune, 9 May 2007; Choe Sang-Hun, “As Tides Ebb and Rise, South Korea Prepares to Snare Them,” International Herald Tribune, 31 May 2007; ABS Energy Research, op. cit. note 102, pp. 13–23; Lunar Energy, “British Firm Announces World’s Largest Tidal Power Development,” press release (East Yorkshire, U.K.: 11 March 2008); IEA, Implementing Agreement on Ocean Energy Systems (IEA-OES), 2008 Annual Report (Lisbon, Portugal: February 2009), p. 83.
104. Palmer, op. cit. note 102; Choe, “As Tides Ebb and Rise,” op. cit. note 103; ABS Energy Research, op. cit. note 102, pp. 13–23; “World Electricity Installed Capacity by Type (Million Kilowatts), January 1, 2006,” in DOE, op. cit. note 3.
105. “Issued Hydrokinetic Projects Preliminary Permits,” table in Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, “Hydropower-Industry Activities,” at www.ferc.gov/industries/hydropower/indus-act/hydrokinetics.asp, updated 2 July 2009; Mike Hoover, Oceana Energy Company, e-mail to J. Matthew Roney, 30 June 2009.
106. Robert Silgardo et al., Finavera Renewables Inc.: Where There is Wind There is a Wave (Toronto, ON: Dundee Securities Corporation, 18 June 2007); “Issued Hydrokinetic Projects Preliminary Permits,” op. cit. note 105; San Francisco from Tom Zeller, Jr., “Wave Power for San Francisco?” Green Inc., at Nytimes.com, 27 February 2009.
107. Pelamis Wave Power, “Aguçadoura,” at www.pelamiswave.com, viewed 23 April 2009; Mario de Queiroz, “Portugal: Waves of Energy Come Ashore,” Inter Press Service, 24 September 2008; “Wave Hub Names Fourth Developer for Wave Energy Farm,” Renewable Energy Access, 15 May 2007; European Commission, Report on the Workshop on Hydropower and Ocean Energy—Part I: Ocean Energy (Brussels: 13 June 2007), pp. 1, 3; IEA, op. cit. note 7; “Aquamarine to Develop 1 GW of Ocean Energy,” Renewable Energy World, 24 February 2009; wave potential from World Energy Council, 2007 Survey of Energy Resources (London: 2007), p. 544; “World Electricity Installed Capacity by Type (Million Kilowatts), January 1, 2006,” in DOE, op. cit. note 3.
108. REN21, Renewables Global Status Report: 2009 Update (Paris and Washington, DC: REN21 Secretariat and Worldwatch Institute, 2009), p. 23; Lila Buckley, “Hydropower in China: Participation and Energy Diversity Are Key,” China Watch (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute and Global Environmental Institute, 24 April 2007); “Rural Areas Get Increased Hydro Power Capacity,” op. cit. note 101; Pallavi Aiyar, “China: Another Dammed Gorge,” Asia Times, 3 June 2006; Gary Duffy, “Brazil Gives Amazon Dams Go-Ahead,” BBC News, 10 July 2007; Patrick McCully, Before the Deluge: Coping with Floods in a Changing Climate (Berkeley, CA: International Rivers Network, 2007), pp. 22–23.
109. DOE, EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (Washington, DC: March 2009), p. 74; National Hydropower Association, “NHA Applauds President Obama and Congress for Turning to Hydro in the Stimulus,” press release (Washington, DC: 19 February 2009).
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